The PM says immigration is “back under control” and asks when to resume a controlled population increase. What the current levels plan says and what to watch before Nov. 1.
On September 29, 2026, The Canadian Press reported that Prime Minister Mark Carney, in an interview with the New York Times, described Canada’s immigration system as “back under control” and said the question now is “when do we resume some controlled increase in the population.” The federal government must table its next three-year levels plan within about a month. This article separates what was actually said from what is already official, and lists what to watch before the plan lands.
What was said, and what was not
The remark is a signal about direction, not a policy. No new target, date or program was announced. “Controlled increase” could eventually mean higher permanent resident targets, a slower pace of cuts to temporary residents, or both; nothing published so far says which. Treat anything more specific than that as speculation, including from us.
The numbers that are official today
IRCC’s current plan was published on November 5, 2025 and covers 2026 to 2028. These are the department’s own figures.
| Measure | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Permanent resident admissions | 380,000 | 380,000 | 380,000 |
| New temporary resident arrivals | 385,000 | 370,000 | 370,000 |
| …of which workers | 230,000 | 220,000 | 220,000 |
| …of which students | 155,000 | 150,000 | 150,000 |
Economic immigration is planned at 64% of permanent resident admissions in 2027 and 2028, which IRCC calls the highest share in decades. The plan also includes two one-time initiatives in 2026 and 2027 that move about 148,000 people already in Canada to permanent residence: roughly 115,000 protected persons and their in-Canada dependents, and up to 33,000 temporary workers. The stated goal for temporary residents is less than 5% of the total population by the end of 2027, down from about 7% in October 2024, per the same Canadian Press report.
Careful with figures you see quoted elsewhere: 385,000 is the 2026 target for <strong>new temporary resident arrivals</strong>. The permanent resident target is <strong>380,000</strong> a year. The two are easy to swap.
When the next plan is due
Section 94(1) of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act requires the Minister to table the annual report to Parliament on or before November 1, or, if a House is not sitting, within the next 30 sitting days after that date. The 2027–2029 levels plan is expected to come out through that process. Until it does, the 2026–2028 numbers above are the ones in force.
Not everyone agrees on the direction
Per The Canadian Press, the C.D. Howe Institute’s immigration targets council, which includes academics, a former deputy minister and former Alberta premier Jason Kenney, recommends continuing to reduce arrivals: about 380,000 admissions next year falling to 340,000 by 2029, and a temporary-resident share of 3% of the population. That is the opposite tilt from the prime minister’s remark, so the final numbers are genuinely open.
What this means if you are planning an application
Nothing changes today. Eligibility rules, Express Entry draws, provincial nominee allocations and processing all run on the current plan, and a signal in an interview does not change any of them. Three practical points:
- Do not wait for a rumoured increase. Any higher target would be a national ceiling, not a guarantee that your category, score or province gets more invitations. Check where you stand now with the free eligibility checker.
- Keep status and documents current. Expiring work permits, language tests and police certificates are the usual ways strong files stall, whatever the levels plan says.
- Read the plan when it is tabled, not the headlines. The split between economic, family and humanitarian classes, and between workers and students, is what determines who is affected.
For the related backlog picture, see our analyses of IRCC’s permanent residence and temporary residence dashboards.
This article is general information based on public reporting and IRCC’s published plan, verified September 30, 2026. It predicts nothing about the 2027–2029 plan or any individual application, and it is not legal advice.
Talk to a Licensed Consultant About Your Own File
National targets describe a system, not your case. If you want to know which pathway fits your profile today, a licensed RCIC can look at your actual dates, status and scores.
